Posted on July 4, 2023
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Year One of the Jay Norvell era did not go exactly as planned in 2022.
When the Rams grabbed him from Nevada a high-powered and potent offense was supposed to follow.
CSU will be looking for that to improve dramatically in 2023.
I preview Colorado State’s upcoming season below with a look back at last season and an analysis of the offense, defense, and schedule.
Colorado State Rams Fast Facts
• 2022 Record: 3-9
• Head Coach: Jay Norvell (3-9 at CSU)
• Offensive Coordinator: Matt Mumme
• Defensive Coordinator: Freddie Banks
• Home Stadium: Canvas Stadium (41,000), Fort Collins, CO
• Last Conference Title: 2002, Mountain West
2022 in Review
CSU picked up just three wins on the season with victories coming against teams that would finish a combined 7-30 on the year.
What they got was an offense that failed to score 20 points in any game averaging just 13.2 points per game for the season.
The head coach brought along six players from Nevada to help execute his Air Raid system and they could only muster 286 yards of offense per game.
Offense
This season the offense should be much improved.
Clay Millen is back for his second season in Fort Collins and looks to improve upon a debut season in which he set an FBS freshman record for completion percentage as he connected on 72.2% of his pass attempts.
Millen will thrive in this offense and his numbers will continue to get better. One stat he hopes to not lead the nation in for a second time is the number of times being sacked.
The Rams gave up an NCAA most 59 sacks in 2022, 4.92 per game. 18.3% of the time the Rams dropped back to pass in 2022 ended with the QB on his back.
The pass protection was terrible last season, and the run blocking was not much better. CSU was only able to churn out 89 yards rushing per game at a clip of 2.8 yards per carry.
Production from the offensive line has to be better this season. The Rams have added transfers this season to revamp that group with Jacob Gardner returning.
Gardner has 33 starts for the Rams under his belt. Bobby Lawrence comes in from Missouri and has an NFL frame on him at 6-9 330 and should man one of the tackle spots.
For the Rams offense to get on track he will need to have skills to match that frame.
In the running game, the line may not have to create huge holes for KJ Edwards to produce.
The JUCO transfer has speed and big play ability every time he touches the ball. Edwards concluded his career at Victor Valley with a four-game run in which he produced 541 yards on the ground and ran for three touchdowns.
Avery Morrow also returns in the backfield after totaling 834 yards on the ground in his sophomore season.
The offense again will be centered around the passing attack and Millen connecting on quick hitters. His leading receiver returns in Tory Horton who caught 71 balls for 1,131 yards in 2022.
Some other receivers will have to step up, Horton accounted for 47.9% of the Rams’ yardage and 75% of their TD receptions in 2022.
Justin Ross-Simmons looks like he should be capable, as a freshman he was the second target with 26 receptions and 424 yards.
For the Rams to be the offense they want to be will need to see those numbers double and a true third option will need to emerge.
Colorado State will have to cash in on Red Zone opportunities this season.
Last year they were dead last among FBS teams with a red zone scoring rate of just 52.2% and put a TD on the board on just 21.7% of their trips inside the opponent’s 20.
Defense
The defense last season was not terrible. In conference play they only allowed 19.9 points per game and that included Boise State putting up 49 on them.
They have a legitimate All-Conference performer in safety Jack Howell. The junior picked off three passes in 2022 and led the Rams with 108 tackles on the season.
Along with Howell, the back end of the defense sees returners in Ayden Hector who also picked off three passes for the Rams last season.
Both starters at corner return and the position will be bolstered even more with the addition of Ron Hardge III from Oregon State joining a unit that was 19th in the nation last season allowing just 191.4 yards through the air per game.
Mohamed Kamara produced 8.5 sacks and 16 TFLs in 2022 and returns to create havoc for his senior season. The big issue for the defense last season was stopping the run as the Rams allowed 163.6 yards rushing per game.
Schedule
2023 Colorado State Football Schedule
Sept 2 vs Washington State
Sept 16 at Colorado
Sept 23 at Middle Tennessee
Sept 30 vs Utah Tech
Oct 7 at Utah State
Oct 14 vs Boise State
Oct 21 at UNLV
Oct 28 vs Air Force
Nov 4 at Wyoming
Nov 11 vs San Diego State
Nov 18 vs Nevada
Nov 25 at Hawai’i
The schedule does not do the Rams any favors this season.
Their bye week coming on Week Two is sandwiched between a pair of games against Pac-12 opponents in Washington State and Colorado.
They have a pair of road games in the nonconference slate with the trip to Colorado followed by a trip to Middle Tennessee. Getting one of those road games, if not stealing both will be huge.
The middle part of the schedule is the toughest with a five-game gauntlet in conference play which sees them host Boise, Air Force, and San Diego State with road trips to UNLV and Wyoming sprinkled in.
The success of the season could be determined during that stretch and how well the Rams can recover from it with a pair of seemingly winnable games to finish with Nevada at home and Hawai’i on the road.
The bottom line is CSU has to score points this season. In their three wins last season, the Rams had a Red Zone TD rate of 40% in the nine losses that figure fell to 16.7%.
For Year Two of the Jay Norvell era to take off, the offense will need to produce.
—More from Stephen Vilardo—
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
